News A stable first half amid geopolitical and economic uncertainty
The Swiss watch industry exports 95% of its production to almost 200 markets and has faced multiple factors influencing trends in the sector. Geopolitical, macroeconomic and commercial constraints have played a significant role in the results achieved in the industry. Among other things, the first half of 2026 was characterised by a high level of volatility in the United States following the imposition of further tariffs and a base effect marked by their introduction in the second quarter of 2025. The conflict that has raged in the Middle East since the end of February has also destabilised a region that accounts for 10% of Swiss watch exports and which, until that point, had offered the best growth potential worldwide. The first half of the year also saw a more stable Greater China, following a 30% drop over two years in mainland China and the special administrative region of Hong Kong combined.
The sector has also faced several unfavourable economic factors. The already high level of the Swiss franc has continued to strengthen, increasing the price of watches abroad and lowering exporters’ margins. At the same time, the sharp depreciation in the US dollar – and other currencies linked to it – since the beginning of 2025 has taken the currency to an unprecedented level and exacerbated financial difficulties in the sector’s main market. Finally, for some products, the record level of the price of gold in the first half had significant consequences for both selling prices and production costs.
Combined with a cautious approach to restocking orders by retailers, these conditions have maintained the pressure on Swiss production. Some suppliers are seeing the end of short-time working options approaching, while others have already reduced their workforce. Overall, the moderate fall in employment has continued.
Against this background, Swiss watch exports have held up well, on average, and only fallen back slightly. Valued at 12.8 billion francs, they are 0.7% down compared with the first half of 2025. Demand for Swiss watches has proved robust in several markets, including the United States and the United Kingdom. Moreover, fast-developing markets, including Mexico and India, have shown strong growth.
Forecasts for 2026 as a whole point to relatively stable performance compared with 2025. Nonetheless, the level of uncertainty remains particularly high both in the Middle East and in relation to future tariffs that the US government may impose on Switzerland.
Swiss watch exports in detail
Exports of wristwatches declined slightly (-0.6%) to 12.2 billion francs over the first half of the year, despite an increase in the number of items. Over 7 million watches were shipped abroad during the first six months, an increase of 162,000 units compared with the first half of 2025 (+2.3%).
Volumes were mainly driven by mechanical watches with an export price below 500 francs, which were up by 23.8%. In value terms, the overall result was mainly affected by the decline in the 500–3,000 francs segment (-5.7%).
Watches made from precious metals fell by 6.5% in value, to the benefit of bimetallic models (+20.0%). This transfer of demand is mainly explained by the price of materials. The Other metals category also grew strongly (+14.4%), while steel watches fell back (-6.5%).
Swiss watch exports to the United States (-14.8% compared with the first half of 2025) were faced with a very high basis for comparison, in particular the increase of 150% in April 2025 following the announcement of additional tariffs. Nonetheless, performance over two years (+2.6% compared with 2024) is positive, confirming the robustness of the US market.
In Asia, the increase in Hong Kong (+3.3%) almost made up for the contraction in China (-5.0%), producing a stable result for the region as a whole. However, the persistent decline in mainland China is destabilising future prospects for a region that was still the sector’s second-largest market at the end of 2024, but which has now dropped to sixth place. Among the other Asian markets, Japan dipped slightly (-1.6%) while Singapore increased (+2.2%), along with South Korea (+6.5%).
The trend in the Middle East was more moderate than expected, with a 2.0% decline for the region as a whole during the first half of the year, and an increase in the United Arab Emirates (+1.6%).
In Europe, the result achieved by France (+63.4%) does not reflect the actual trend in the market, but a change in logistics movements for products that are then re-exported to other countries on the continent. The United Kingdom (+5.8%) was a solid market for Swiss watch exports. Conversely, German remains in a negative economic situation and continued to lose ground (-10.5%).
The strongest growth came from Mexico (+14.9%), which has performed steadily for several years, and from India (+31.5%), which moved into fifth place and still offers the best long-term prospects for the sector.
July 21, 2026